If you listen to any US politician on the left or the right, they’ll tell you that we should defend Taiwan because it’s our obligation to protect democracies. I don’t dispute that as a reason for why Taiwan matters to the United States but it’s definitely not the core reason.
The core reason is Security Credibility.
For the past ~75 years, the United States has set up an alliance/security system that is all over the world.
800 military bases in at least 80 countries
US troops are deployed in 159 countries.
The US has defense pacts with 69 different countries.
These countries make up 25% of the world’s population and 75% of the world’s economic output.
This number doesn’t count countries like Saudi Arabia who the US would theoretically defend in order to protect it’s own interests.
This system is what has made the United States the global hegemon. It’s based on a core trade: The US will defend you and in return, you are an ally of the US in global matters.
Being an ally of the United States looks different for everyone.
For a Latin American country, you just don’t have to allow a Chinese or Russian military base in your country.
If you’re a European country, you side with the US on critical matters.
The American people (Actually just Republicans) often think this means “Europe has to agree with the US publicly on everything”. It doesn’t. So long as Europe is there for the United States in fights that matter, who cares if they spend their spare time talking smack.
This system really hasn’t been challenged. The US has fought a lot of wars in the past 75 years but none because it had an obligation to defend someone.
The United States didn’t have a formal obligation to defend South Korea until after the Korean War.
The US didn’t have a security pact with South Vietnam.
There was nothing saying the US had to defend Kuwait.
China invading Taiwan would be the first direct challenge to a US security obligation.
What Commitment Does The United States Have To Taiwan?
Since 1979, the United States has exercised “Strategic Ambiguity” in regards to Taiwan.
The US has never said it will defend Taiwan
The US has never said it won’t defend Taiwan.
That’s the policy of strategic ambiguity. The calculation behind this is actually quite smart, or at least it was until recently:
US plays “Will we or won’t we”
China is unsure if the US will come to Taiwan’s aid
Deters a Chinese attack
China can’t cut off the United States from it’s economy because the US never said if it supported Taiwan.
This also deters Taiwan
One of China’s red lines on Taiwan is declaring independence. In the past when Taiwan has pushed independence, the US has reminded them that the US has not committed to defending them.
Just because the US will defend Taiwan doesn’t mean it wants to.1
This strategy has worked for 40 years but as China gets closer to being a peer to the United States militarily, does the strategy even matter?
Some have called for the United States to ditch “strategic ambiguity” and to, instead, adopt “strategic clarity”. Strategic clarity would be the US just saying it’s going to defend Taiwan instead of trying to be cute about it. The Biden administration is already kind of trying this out. In August, President Biden said:
“The U.S. is committed to defending the island in the same way it is committed to defending its NATO allies.”
And in October he said:
“America would come to Taiwan's aid in the event of a Chinese attack.”
The next day, the White House said that the US policy towards Taiwan had not changed. Both times the media criticized Biden for such a “reckless mistake” but they weren’t mistakes. They were to send a message to Beijing without changing the US policy towards Taiwan.
Not everyone is a fan of strategic clarity though. If the US plainly states it’s going to defend Taiwan that will be the end of the US-China relationship. China has been very clear on what their red lines are and to cross one of them will sever any remaining relationship there is. There is also the argument that it wouldn’t change anything because China already believes the US will defend Taiwan. At the core of strategic ambiguity is the general premise that the US will defend Taiwan, they just won’t directly say it.
Does The President Matter When It Comes To Taiwan?
The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 has dictated American policy towards Taiwan for 42 years.
Here’s what it says, the important sections at least:
The United States considers any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States. …
The United States must have a policy to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character and to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.
The TRA gives the President authority to go to war over Taiwan, however, it also doesn’t allow a President to not go to war over Taiwan. It is up to Congress to determine if the President can militarily abandon Taiwan.
The Taiwan Relations Act and NATO Article 5 are two of the most rock solid parts of American foreign policy. They are etched in stone and no one person can change them.
What Happens If The US Doesn’t Defend Taiwan?
I don’t want to be “Mr. Doom and Gloom” but it certainly wouldn’t be good. As I highlighted in the beginning, US security credibility is caught up in it’s willingness and ability to defend it’s allies.
Let’s play out what could happen if the US were to abandon Taiwan:
The US loses a lot of credibility.
For the past 75 years, the United States has insisted that it is the leader and the defender of the West.
The US would be making it very clear that they are only leaders when they want to be. For years, the US has lectured Europe on how some conflicts are just not optional. By abandoning Taiwan, the US essentially reveals that they only fight wars Washington wants to fight and that all of this mumbo-jumbo about democracy and the West was just scam to hold onto hegemony.
US allies start looking to other places for defense.
Japan and Australia start looking at making peace or becoming more intertwined with China. They obviously don’t agree with China on much but it’s a better alternative than being adversarial to a country 14x your size. They could afford to be adversarial in the past because they had the backing of the United States.
Europe gets serious about forming an “EU Army”. If you can’t trust Washington to show up to defend you against Russia, then you’re going to have to defend yourself. This would also give Europe the ability to pursue it’s own interests without worrying about whether Washington approves of it.
Nothing really changes for Canada. What are they gonna do? Sever the border Bugs Bunny style?
And that would be the end of American Hegemony. It would also probably be the end of Western Hegemony because Germany doesn’t want to inherit this global sphere of influence the US has maintained. Germany has different interests.. Not everyone is interested in controlling the world the way the US does. Some countries like having healthcare :p
TL;DR:
The US has told 69 different countries that it will defend them and in exchange, the US has been given a massive sphere of influence. If the US abandons Taiwan, the entire security/alliance infrastructure will fall apart because the credibility that the US used to build it will be gone.
Defending democracies is noble and important but it’s not really a priority of the United States. The US isn’t about to march into war over an island 100 miles off the shores of China because of democracy. It’ll march into war because for the first time in 75 years, the US will have to put it’s money where it’s mouth is and fulfill it’s security commitments against a major threat.
Personal Note:
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Explanation of what I mean: The US will defend Taiwan but war with China will be costly. The US would like to avoid it as long as possible. The status quo is favorable to the United States.