Is War On The Horizon In Ukraine?
As tensions rise, what are the odds that the war that has been 75 years in the making breaks out?
In order to understand why Russia is making such a big deal about Ukraine and it’s potential membership to NATO, you have to understand why Russia is Russia.
So here’s a little bit of history:
This is the Northern European Plain, it’s very flat.
It runs from the borders of France to the Ural mountains in Russia.
Throughout history, when a country in Europe expanded - They expanded across this plain. For example: The Holy Roman Empire, Lithuanian Empire, The French Period, 1940s Germany, and the USSR.
As you can tell: There is one consistent problem with Russia’s geography, it’s western border is very flat. From the Ottomans to Napoleon to the infamous German Chancellor, Moscow getting sacked is a pretty frequent event in the grand scheme of things.
This really shapes how Russia acts today.
After the Second World War, the allied forces gave up most if not all territory that they liberated but the Soviet Union kept all of it besides Finland and Austria.
In the Soviet view, this was the third time in 100 years that they had to fight for their survival from a European power and (in their view) that they had gained the right to keep that territory through spilled blood.
That territory the Soviet Union gained gave them a significant amount of protection. The Red Army could meet the West in Poland rather than at Russia’s borders.
NATO was developed to protect against the Soviet threat and it clearly worked. So when the USSR collapsed, the countries that were formerly part of the USSR or it’s satellite states - They began joining NATO as they believed that the risk of being reconquered by Russia was clearly high.
In addition to fears over Russia, it’s also kind of nice to be in a security relationship with the rest of your continent after you spent 1,500 years fighting each other, ya know?
There is this often repeated fiction about the fall of the USSR that NATO and the West betrayed Russia by allowing former soviet states to join NATO and if they hadn’t done that - Russia would be part of NATO and the EU, and a dear friend to all.
It’s certainly a better reality than the one we have but it’s just not realistic. Russia was just a world superpower who was feared by both the Chinese and the Americans. They weren’t suddenly going to settle to just being one of the great powers.
And that brings us to today.
Ukraine joining NATO would see NATO troops only 283 miles from Moscow. NATO troops are already on the border of Russia in Latvia and Estonia but that route is about 200 miles longer and they joined in 2004, back when Russia wasn’t strong enough to cause a stink over it.
TL;DR Of The History:
Russia is deeply paranoid that NATO will push East and conquer Russia. It’s what Europe has done time and time again.
NATO and these former Soviet states are deeply paranoid that Russia will try to bring the USSR back. There are people who turned 30 this year who lived in the USSR, it wasn’t that long ago.
Russia’s Objectives:
Russia wants NATO to pledge to not let Ukraine join NATO and to not put weapons in Ukraine
For context, Ukraine is a country of 44 million people that used to be a part of the USSR and they share 1,200 miles of border, used to vibe more in 2014 when they had a pro-Russian president.
They basically want to prevent Ukraine from becoming a US and NATO outpost
Building up forces and making it seem like you may invade seems like a pretty good way of getting that but unfortunately for Putin, President Biden rejected his redline over NATO membership for Ukraine.
Russia will now need to seek new ways to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
Like an invasion
Ukraine joining NATO has been a major concern for Russia in the past. They took Crimea in 2014 to ensure that they still had access to a warm water port if their campaign of chaos in Ukraine failed.
Possible Actions Taken by Russia:
Russia backdowns.
This has never happened ever.
They are also dealing with nationalistic problems - people are not happy with Putin because of falling wages, higher prices
Russia gets what it wants and the EU and NATO agree to allow Ukraine to be subjected to Russia’s mercy.
Russia invades Ukraine to the Dnieper river, essentially annexing all of Eastern Ukraine.
This would be one of the easiest routes for Russia. It’s unlikely NATO acts militarily in response. Most of Eastern Ukraine is ethnic Russians who speak Russian, and when you’re occupying a territory - It’s a lot easier when the people are like you.
Russia doubles down on separatist forces in the Donbas.
Russia has already invaded Ukraine in the Donbas region and by doubling down, they can annex the area with plausible deniability. (Not really, everyone knows it’s their soldiers not rebels).
Russia invades Ukraine fully → “Russia is not invading Ukraine, it is threatening to launch a renewed offensive to expand it's occupation”
This would prompt a NATO response. It has to - otherwise - it endangers the security of Eastern Europe.
Ukraine is already tired - “We have been living in war for many years. And it is terrible that we got used to it. I don't know what will happen next. We'll see." said a 55-year-old teacher who gave his name as Vladislav.
NATO’s Concerns/Views:
U.S. officials have told members of Congress they have an understanding with Germany about shutting down the Nordstream 2 natural gas pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine
If Putin wants to see gas flow through this pipeline, he better not act up.
But also Europe is currently in the middle of a natural gas crisis so it’s not an easy decision. Germany is already not happy with the US because of what went down with Trump
Ted Cruz thinks this is in order to bypass Ukrainian pipelines which makes no sense
This could also be used by Russia to “freeze” Europe during the winter and while Nordstream isn’t fully operational, Russia is still a major provider of oil to Europe.
NATO can beat Russia in a war, but Russian nuclear doctrine suggests they will use low yield nuclear weapons on the battlefield.
Escalate to de-escalate.
Russian policy seems to believe that if they use a low yield, it’ll show their willingness to go fully nuclear and force a peace.
What constitutes a battlefield to Russia?
Is it just the battlefield or is it also convoys to the battlefield? Is it also a camp where soldiers are staying?
Satellite images of large ground forces (tanks, APCs, self-propelled artillery) in Yelnya, Russia. Could that be considered a battlefield if the shoe was on the other foot?
What happens if they actually do use a low yield? The norm in warfare is restraint but what are the domestic politics of the usage of nuclear weapons?
If Russia uses a nuclear weapon on NATO troops in Kiev, will Biden, Johnson, and Macron have to use them back due to political pressure? Will NATO have to use it’s nukes?
Nuking a city is a pointless endeavor because it’s not really effective but how do you stop it from escalating to that point?
What if the war escalates and they are fighting a war in the Baltics and the Black Sea?
The more expansive the war gets, the more likely nuclear weapons are to be used by Russia as it simply can’t keep up with NATO’s manpower and eventually NATO would have to push into Russia if Russia sends a full assault.
US Options To Respond To Russia:
Severe Sanctions
Cutting off Russia from SWIFT.
Nuclear Bomb Of Sanctions
This is the Iran set of sanctions.
Cuts Russia off from the global financial system entirely.
This is also very risky because China and others could capitalize on this to try to create their own pathway around the New York City Banking System, subverting the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Crashing Russia’s economy
Curbing people’s ability to invest in Russian debt in the secondary
Could target Russian Direct Investment Fund as well
Military force
US Soldiers and Russian Soldiers have fought each other in Syria but never in Eastern Europe
How do you keep the military conflict narrow?
During the Falklands War, the UK essentially drew a circle and told Argentina that anything in that circle was subjected to attack. This was their way of ensuring them that they had no intention of attacking the mainland
A U.S. congressional defense bill released after the talks between Putin and Biden which included $300 million for Ukraine's military.
Cold War Era Actions On Behalf Of Ukraine
The Cold War ended 30 years ago and while the CIA was usually playing catch up to the KGB, they mastered creating resistance.
Special Forces
CIA-funded insurgencies
Supplying guns
Making Ukraine into Russia’s New Afghanistan
Vietnam is to the United States what Afghanistan is to Russia/USSR.
US Political Situation Could Dictate US’ Response
Fox News spent 3 hours earlier this week supporting Putin’s potential invasion of Ukraine. Does this turn part of the American public against the war?
The American Public is filled with flip-floppers. They will oppose war but then attack Biden for not going to war, and vice-versa.
Ukraine’s PR campaign could do wonders for helping the White House and the Pentagon justify intervention on their behalf
They’re memes, they’re funny, and clearly targeted at Westerners
I don’t know if Ukraine meme-ing their way through an invasion will suddenly turn Doves into Hawks but I know that it may make the casual American aware of the situation.
When the Hong Kong protesters began flying American flags in 2019, it definitely made the American public more supportive and more aware of their cause.
So, Is It War Or Not?
It’s hard to say.
Would Putin not invading after all this drama be viewed as him backing down domestically?
If all of this is over concerns of NATO, Putin will ultimately be the loser if he doesn’t invade because Ukraine is going to join NATO and the West has been very clear about that.
Perhaps Putin will wait for the results of the 2024 Ukrainian Election. If an anti-Russian President is elected (or perhaps I should say “if his rigging attempts fail”), does that make an invasion imminent?
Putin is a careful operator.
Will he do something so flagrant that it would prompt a NATO response?
Not intentionally
Could Putin miscalculate the West’s desire to not get involved in a war?
Absolutely.
Are the United States and NATO ready to take on Russia?
Yes, they have been preparing for this moment for 75 years.
If war happens, it will be a hellish brutal war.
The type of war the United States hasn’t seen since World War 2.
US hasn’t fought a legitimate peer to them militarily since the Korean War.
Some would argue that North Korea and China weren’t even peers, and they’d probably be right.
Is war on the horizon?
Only Putin knows but it’s suspected that if something is going to happen, it’ll happen in February.
My Ending Joke:
What do Russian soldiers and Russian Olympic Athletes have in common?
Neither one wears the Russian flag.
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